Presenting a New Algorithm for Determining Optimal Replaceable Capacity of Conventional Power Plants by Renewable Power Plants Based on Monte Carlo Method

Given the substitution process of generators using renewable energy sources instead of conventional generators in modern power systems, this paper proposes a Monte Carlo based method to determine an optimal level of this change. At first, LOLE index of the system was calculated without wind power to obtain the reference index. Then, the wind turbine units are replaced with the conventional generators. This purpose has been achieved in stages with the gradually reduced portion of conventional generators and increased portion of the of wind turbine generators in order to pave the way for the calculation of the required amount of wind power using Monte Carlo simulation method. The LOLE index at each step was compared with the base LOLE index. In the end, the 5% annual load increment rate in the development strategy with the focus on sole wind power generation was investigated and the power needed for each load increment was calculated. The proposed method was implemented on IEEE-RTS system